Russian ICBM

I read a news story today about the Russians announcing a new version of the Topol-M missile that can penetrate any defense system. I don't know about any defense system - nobody's ever tried to get an ICBM through to the Death Star, after all. But it is pretty easy to saturate and overload anti-ballistic missile systems, and an ICBM with MIRVs is a good way to get started.

But in another way, it's a development that doesn't mean anything. All it means, fundamentally, is that the Topol-M will be replacing the old (but quite large) SS-18 ICBM, which was already MIRV-capable, so it doesn't represent any new capability, just a replacement for an aging capability.

Had the new Topol-M variant been capable of depressed trajectories, or accurate FOBS, or had maneuverable RVs, I might sit up and take notice. But as it stands, it's just replacing an old MIRVed ICBM with a new MIRVed ICBM and doesn't seem to represent any radical new capability.

The only thing that seems close to being radically new is the ability to launch a MIRV-capable ICBM from a mobile launcher. It's an interesting gimmick, but I am of the mind that it is just a gimmick. It still seems to me that ballistic missile submarines armed with long-range SLBMs are still the ultimate deterrent and land-based systems exist mostly to buttress the egos of the honchos who run the Strategic Rocket Forces. (I read a lot about the necessity of maintaining the nuclear triad, but why? I think the nuclear triad is an idea that we need to revisit.)

But what do I know? I helped put a banana in a pina colada and produced a strange milkshake.