Predictions for 2013

John McCain recently released his predictions of what the world will look like in 2013, after his first term as President. You can read his predictions here:

http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/mccain-lays-out-vision-for-first-term/20080515065909990001?icid=1615988631x1202436453x1200304557

His predictions fall into two general categories: the laudable but unlikely, and the dangerously deluded. For example, the idea that we'll be a lot further down the road toward energy independence by 2013 is laudable but unlikely. It takes longer than four years to build a nuclear power plant, and lobbyists and "industry experts" will see to it that nothing damaging to oil company profits will ever be deployed on a large scale.

On the dangerously deluded front, we have his "League of Democracies" that takes over from the "failed" United Nations and goes on to punish Sudan and other Blue Meanies for genocide and whatnot. The "League of Democracies" sounds a lot like the "Anglo-Saxon Old Boy's Club" to me, in effect the G8 pretending to be a political rather than economic entity. I confess I'm frustrated by the inability of the UN to do anything meaningful in places like Darfur, but I don't think neo-colonialism is the answer either. So I think fixing the UN is the right answer, not bending NATO's mission statement until it snaps.

But the kicker is the idea that in four years Iraq will be a "functional democracy" racked by violence that is sporadic and occasional. And how does McCain plan on doing this without maintaining a garrison of about a million US troops in the country? Because that's the only thing that's going to really stop the sectarian civil war, and even then it doesn't stop it, it merely puts it into suspended animation. Remember that this has been going on in one way or another since at least the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD, and arouses in the pious of both sides the most intense passions. McCain thinks that he can change all that in four years? I am, as they say, dubious. I once said that partition was the only option that realistically offered the chance of a real end to the violence, and I still believe that.

So here are my predictions for 2013:

1. We'll still be paying mountainous sums for oil and gasoline because despite the best intentions and the best brains, we'll still be shackled to petro-dictatorships and oil company executives.

2. Iraq will either still be in a state of marginally suppressed civil war, or will have finally partitioned.

3. The UN will continue to be better at passing resolutions and wagging forefingers than at solving problems, and the problems in Darfur will be just as bad as they are today.

4. If McCain wins, there will most likely be smoking bomb craters in Iran, and all chances of a peaceful rapprochement with Iran, and Shia Islam in general, will go up in smoke.

5. You-know-who will still be hiding in the tribal region in Pakistan, but since he's now a marginal player in the jihad (useful as a symbol and rallying point, but not the operational nexus any more) it doesn't matter one way or the other.

6. The Suns will still not have won a championship.